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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-11T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30719/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T11:13Z (-5.0h, +3.84h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/05/11 01:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 2:00
POS Midpoint: 05:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.09
Travel Time: ~8.09 * 4:10 = 33:43

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-12T11:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/11 05:23Z

Lead Time: 29.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-11T05:24Z

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