CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-11T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30719/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T11:13Z (-5.0h, +3.84h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/05/11 01:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 06:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 2:00
POS Midpoint: 05:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.09
Travel Time: ~8.09 * 4:10 = 33:43

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-12T11:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/11 05:23Z

Lead Time: 29.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-11T05:24Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement